It was two months prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have piled up.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
