Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
